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principles of interventionism

Reader comment on item: Libyan Blues

Submitted by lucretius (Poland), Aug 23, 2011 at 03:57

There are some positive elements in the way this intervention was carried out and also much to worry about. On the positive side: the overthrow (assuming that it really turns out to be so) of the Gaddafi regime has been achieved without the use of Western ground troops, which clearly is much more palatable to the Arabs and to the Western public opinion. Essentially the same was true about the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan, where the ground fighting was done almost exclusively by the forces of the Northern Alliance (because the US rather than NATO was involved in the campaign, the original victory in Afghanistan was achieved with much less destruction and loss of life than in Libya.)

The biggest problem will begin only from now on. If Western powers and public understood that there is absolutely no point in helping to bring about a regime change if it is going to mean a change for the worse both for the West and for the Libyan people, than there would be reasons for hope, for there is no doubt that, with sufficient determination, the West is capable of doing to any regime in Libya that it finds unacceptable the same what it has done to the Gaddafi one. Logic and common sense imply that if you commit yourself to interventionism you have to be ready to stay committed to achieve a outcome that is, at least in some respects better than the situation before the intervention. The West must ensure that the following two fundamental conditions are satisfied (in strict order of priorities):

1. The new regime must be less hostile to Western interests than the previous one

2. The new regime should be at least somewhat better for its people (in terms of human rights etc) than the one it replaced

These are the minimum requirements that should be non-negotiable but one should be very weary of trying to achieve much more than that. Building Western style democracy in a decade or two in semi-medieval societies is far too ambitions and almost certain to end in overreach, disillusionment and possibly Iranian-like outcome - where an unsatisfactory regime was replaced by a far worse one. (However, one should not forget that the Shah was not overthrown by a direct Western intervention, though Carter certainly made a disastrous contribution to what happened).

Had the successful interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq been followed by policies aimed at achieving only the above two points, there are good reasons to believe that the final result would have been better than the one that is going to result from many years of "nation building" in both countries. In fact even at this stage conditions 1 and 2 are both satisfied in both Iraq and Afghanistan and it is still worth doing everything possible that it remains so.

Unfortunately, it is very doubtful that NATO without a strong US involvement has the staying power to ensure even these modest conditions. The US, even in its present sorry condition, certainly has the power, but, right now, not the will. The main reason for staying hopeful is the general unpredictability of the world and the fact that history rarely repeats itself; this means that Egypt is unlikely to become another Iran, as so many expect, and the final outcome in Libya is probably not going to be different from both the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios that are now being discussed.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (51) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
1Libyan post Qaddafi [84 words]ZeenaOct 24, 2011 11:07190333
6Those rebels are diverse [94 words]Michael Hanni MorcosOct 21, 2011 17:20190257
2I sadly agree [100 words]William EastAug 30, 2011 22:01188980
1Europe,Libya and Nato. [109 words]donvanAug 29, 2011 11:40188936
2Libyan Blues Comment [124 words]Shirley Ann AddyAug 27, 2011 14:40188900
1And I fear ... [14 words]W. ZimmermannAug 25, 2011 17:41188850
1Take The Oil [41 words]morris wiseAug 25, 2011 12:20188840
1America's jihadist friends from the 80-ies and 90-ies are welcomed back [1517 words]IanusAug 25, 2011 08:45188838
1Nostalgic for Gomulka? [324 words]Kepha HorAug 26, 2011 18:12188838
1Nostalgic for better memory [1712 words]IanusAug 29, 2011 08:17188838
Thanks for the reply [650 words]Kepha HorAug 30, 2011 17:35188838
3New Poland and global jihad - Zbigniew Brzezinski instead of Jan Sobieski ! [2791 words]IanusSep 2, 2011 10:03188838
The More Things Seem to Change-the More They Stay the Same [755 words]M. ToveySep 7, 2011 15:45188838
5Libyan Greens [99 words]PHILIORAug 23, 2011 19:05188791
1Libya [77 words]REXAug 23, 2011 14:35188788
1Islam is Marching Again [285 words]Arlinda DeAngelisAug 23, 2011 14:05188784
2Deliver me from Pessimism, Please! [190 words]john w. mcginleyAug 23, 2011 12:02188731
principles of interventionism [576 words]lucretiusAug 23, 2011 03:57188679
2Empowering Islamists and its lethal blow back....... [125 words]Adina Kutnicki, IsraelAug 23, 2011 03:40188677
Good Comment [133 words]Peter HerzAug 28, 2011 16:12188677
Who are those guys? [21 words]StephenAug 23, 2011 02:43188676
1Shout "Allahu Akbar" and America will help you. [68 words]IanusAug 26, 2011 17:37188676
The rebels in Libya [178 words]PrashantAug 23, 2011 02:34188675
2"Freeing" Bosnia [135 words]IanusAug 26, 2011 15:14188675
"Freed" was probably a wrong choice of words [17 words]PrashantAug 27, 2011 01:28188675
2I'm Astounded - NB [92 words]helen porathAug 23, 2011 01:47188674
3I'm astounded [141 words]helen porathAug 23, 2011 01:19188673
2"Though this be madness yet there is method in it". [108 words]IanusAug 29, 2011 08:59188673
1Happy about Libya. [136 words]Bob StrubleAug 22, 2011 22:37188663
A valid concern [79 words]Ralph WhaleyAug 22, 2011 22:13188661
1Good Analysis [22 words]Salomon s MizrahiAug 22, 2011 21:13188653
qaddafi [33 words]jerome HenenAug 22, 2011 21:11188652
Time to rejoice or repent? [241 words]Ghulam Muhammed, MumbaiAug 22, 2011 20:24188648
Ghulam Muhammed lacks knowledge [94 words]Salomon MizrahiAug 23, 2011 22:32188648
Repentence Required of Both the West and the East [311 words]M. ToveyAug 25, 2011 11:35188648
1Pipes's Libya Blues [277 words]Dan RusenAug 22, 2011 20:11188645
1Libyas Colors [13 words]Jay1Aug 22, 2011 20:02188643
3"Western forces will have brought civilization's worst enemies to power" -- no surprise there; part of a pattern [36 words]MarkAug 22, 2011 20:01188642
The World According to Islamic Terrorists. [84 words]Tom DundeeAug 22, 2011 19:56188641
2The world according to Zbigniev Brzezinski [796 words]IanusAug 26, 2011 17:12188641
1Realpolitik / Realislamik [61 words]HesperadoAug 31, 2011 00:23188641
Partition still an option? [62 words]John in Michigan, USAAug 22, 2011 19:35188636
Requiem for the Middle East Status Quo [586 words]M. ToveyAug 22, 2011 19:30188634
LIBYAN REBELS TAKING POWER [173 words]JACQUES HADIDAAug 22, 2011 19:28188633
Correct on Libya [52 words]Sidney KavinAug 22, 2011 19:22188632
1Libyan mistake [51 words]HenkAug 22, 2011 18:20188626
1No mistake but purposeful policy-making [134 words]IanusAug 26, 2011 17:52188626
1Shia not Sunni [44 words]George M Weinert VAug 22, 2011 18:02188625
1Situation in Libya; who'se going to be in charge? [58 words]William A. Caro, M.D.Aug 22, 2011 17:54188623
To Lates Vee Gets Too Schmart [28 words]Barry BlackAug 22, 2011 19:47188623
The problem worsens [20 words]aspaciaAug 22, 2011 23:34188623

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