Analysis misses likely escalation

Submitted by Michael (United States), Jun 26, 2012 at 08:48

While this analysis is ok when it comes to the initial Iranian reaction, it underestimates the counter-reaction which would escalate matters with Iran. As tired of overseas involvement and expense as Americans are currently, we are still less likely to just live with kidnappings, or other provocations, as in the past.

Reagan had a bellicose reputation and could afford to ignore even the murder of marines without looking weak. Not so Obama, especially in an election year. Iran will have to restrain their reaction even more than you suggest or risk rapid escalation, possibly ending in overthrow. Their dilemma is that their public comments, designed to scare off an attack on their nuclear facilities, have somewhat painted them into a corner and may force them to react in ways that would prove self-destructive.

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