Great analysis but there are other players/scenarios to be considered

Submitted by Yusuf in Obamastan (United States), Jun 27, 2012 at 01:29

There are so many confounding factors in this scenario. One example is how much can and will be done via cyber war? Covert war? An Israeli overt military strike may, after the first several hours or over the next couple of days, result in, at the very least a mobilization by its enemies. To wit: Hezbolla from the north with Harrasing rocket fire, Hamas and other islamists from Gaza doing the same. Israeli Arabs demonstrating in support of Islam by blocking roads, engaging in arson, sabotage, and other acts of terror. These would impede Israeli mobilization of reserves and commerce. Can Israel handle a 1948 scenario of being attacked by all sides but carry out sufficiently decisive action quickly emerging victorious as in 1967?

The EU, Russian and China would beg Israel to stop. They likely will think short-term, blame Israel, and would gladly sacrifice Israel for cheap oil. And place embargoes after the leftist/Muslim in the EU demands it. I would expect Obama to appease Iran and to side with the EU and also not retaliate for Iranian action against US interests and to try to stop hostilities.

Israel can't afford a prolonged war with Iran or shorter range incoming missiles or acts of sabotage by its Arab citizens.Or a follow up war of attrition against it. These would distrupt the economy and tourism. Thus I think Israel's first strike against Iran has to be extremely decisive with further uncharacteristically decisive action to quickly end any Islamic dreams, from different geographic locations, of Israel's demise. Israel has not acted decisively since 1967. And this has whetted the apetites of its enemies. But can Israel act decisively enough to break the heart of Iran and its allies as well as to stun, via shock and awe, the hostile EU into relative neutrality?

What will be the responses of Turkey, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, the Israeli Left and Syria? Probably chaotic and incoherent responses. Will Israel also use war to move into parts of the Sinai (to better prepare for/deter a future war from the MB) or cut off water, electricity and the artificial supply chain to Gaza? Thus in a few days neutralizing the chronic Gaza problem but also alienating international supporters of Gaza? These are wild cards. But the biggest unknown of all is what has God planned?

In the aftermath of an all out Middle East war there will be a new clarity and likely a new reality beyond the Middle East. And the silliness and tensions of the present unstable messy paradigm and era of wishful thinking will be over.

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