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Tweedle Trump, Tweedle Clinton and Tweedle Obama are apparently our lot in the coming years

Reader comment on item: MEF's Surprising Straw Poll on Trump
in response to reader comment: What's so surprising?

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Apr 13, 2016 at 11:50

Hello, Daniel

You pointed Leon to the same twitter post you pointed me to, which says,

"What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 Electoral votes for a majority?

"If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most Electoral votes. Each staate delegation has one vote"

-- https://twitter.com/DanielPipes/status/719382657361178624

I don't believe we will see that scenario. Donald Trump has said he will not run as a Third Party candidate. He is the only candidate with a popular base sufficient to carry the Deep South states, which are the only states capable of making an electorally significant showing in a three-way race. Trump swept all those states in the primaries, and they contain the current GOP and Conservative heartland of America.

If an insurgent Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination, he cannot defeat Hillary Clinton, even in a two-way race. Hillary has been favored to win from the very beginning of this election cycle; and with perhaps 10% of Republican voters staying home or even voting for Hillary, the prospects are even worse. If Trump did a third-party bid, which, as I say, he is unlikely to do, he and Cruz together would get fewer electoral votes than in a two-party face-off.

All the other Republican candidates have even worse prospects. Kasich has so far shown popularity only in Ohio; and the only other area of the country where he attracts any votes, namely, the the Northeast, is heavily pro-Clinton and pro-Democrat. Rubio is in an even worse place: He carried only Minnesota, DC and Puerto Rico. That gives him a map like the 1984 contest betweeen Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale,

http://uspoliticsguide.com/US-Politics-Directory/Historical-Presidential-Election-Results/1984-Presidential-Election-Results.php

with Rubio winning the votes of the Democrat, Mondale. What I am saying, is that Rubio's appeal is to Democrats, not Republicans; and that those Democrats will vote for Hillary, not him, in the general election.

The other candidates were all losers in the primaries, and are likely to be losers in the election. Paul Ryan has explicitly said he will not become the "white knight" of Republican neocons. He has said he wants the GOP candidate to be one of the announced candidates, who have been referred to as "Snow White and the Seventeen Dwarfs"; and since Ryan will chair the convention, he is likely to get his way.

As I said in another post, I expect Hillary Clinton to be elected President in November. The only conceivable alternative that comes to mind is that if Barack Obama is (God forbid!) assasinated in the next few months, Joe Biden will become President. If this happened before the Democratic Convention, he could then easily oust Hillary as front-runner and go on to win the general election as a landslide. As I said in another place (tongue-in-cheek), Obama would then get not just a day, but a whole month named after him. This would probably be February, currently "Presidents' Month", so as not to compete with Martin Luther King Day in January.

It is possible that you were thinking in terms of Donald Trump getting the nomination, and some other Republican running on a Third Party ticket. The last time a Republican ran against its Southern base successfully was 1924, when "Fighting Bob" Lafollette ran as a Progressive. He won only Wisconsin; and Calvin Coolidge easily won the election:

http://uspoliticsguide.com/US-Politics-Directory/Historical-Presidential-Election-Results/1984-Presidential-Election-Results.php

The Democratic candidate, John W. Davis, won states which exactly corresponded to the former Confederacy. Those states today are the Republican electoral heartland, and are heavily pro-Trump; so the area that then went for Coolige, including New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California, would today go to Clinton.

In all these scenarios, intervention by the House of Representatives would not be called upon.

Concerning Donald Trump's putative foreign policy, "The Donald" has been called Barack Obama's doppleganger:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/421403/obama-and-trump-two-kind-victor-davis-hanson

The two differ on few points, and agree on many. Both think NATO isn't pulling its weight, have proclaimed themselves neutral concerning Israel and the Palesterrorists (though Trump seems more sympathetic towards Israel), see Putin as a positive force in the war against ISIS, are focussed on Asia and obsessed with China, and have been ambivalent towards Free Trade agreements. Just as Obama continued George W Bush's policies (such as Afghanistan, Iraq and waterboarding) almost seamlessly, we can expect a hypothetical President Trump to do likewise.

As for NATO (and the related issues of Europe and the EU), our allies across the Atlantic are on life support. In June, Greece stands a good chance of defaulting on its loan, precipitating a crisis. That same month, the people of Britain will vote to leave the EU; and if the "leaves" carry the day, as polls indicate (though I think them wrong), there will be another crisis. Even now, today, two months before any of that happens, the EU's Schengen Area, already collapsing because of the Immigrant Crisis, will have to decide on taking Visa-Free travel away from the Americans and Canadians:

http://nomadcapitalist.com/2016/04/13/visa-free-travel-to-europe-denied-us-passport/

This, obviously, would not help European-American relations; but Donald Trump had nothing to do with it: It was the fault of Obama and the Republican Establishment.

In November, therefore, we will likely have a choice between Hillary Clinton, who is a continuation of Obama, and Donald Trump, who is a continuation of Obama. I'm so excited about it all, I can hardly wait! (sarcasm)

Shalom shalom

Submitting....

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Reader comments (53) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
preferential voting [452 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Anne JulienneMay 1, 2016 00:56229192
writing in [57 words]Anne JulienneMay 1, 2016 18:10229192
America: Paperwork and Write-in Capital of the World [260 words]Michael SMay 4, 2016 10:47229192
tax returns [26 words]Anne JulienneMay 7, 2016 03:01229192
The Paper Tiger [90 words]Michael SMay 7, 2016 05:00229192
that does sound like a lot [51 words]Anne JulienneMay 9, 2016 02:07229192
Donald Trump, and The Tower of Paperwork [228 words]Michael SMay 13, 2016 02:46229192
I agree about the paperwork but not on who can save us ... [205 words]Anne JulienneMay 16, 2016 02:35229192
Interesting times ahead [341 words]Michael SMay 20, 2016 03:23229192
I wrote: a "saviour" *in this* [66 words]Anne JulienneMay 22, 2016 19:53229192
1This isn't about Trump; it's about national sovereignty [680 words]Michael SMay 23, 2016 11:00229192
enough with the logorrhoea [26 words]Anne JulienneMay 26, 2016 06:02229192
1I fear the Left more than I fear Trump [139 words]SteinApr 19, 2016 18:23229062
I am surprised [23 words]Tamar KupesteinApr 17, 2016 18:41228994
The wonderful migration [108 words]Michael SMay 22, 2016 11:02228994
1Any Terrorist attack wil help Trump and defeat Hillary [159 words]EdwardApr 12, 2016 13:07228918
No surprise [696 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Gideon RemezApr 12, 2016 12:45228916
Dr. Pipes, what's your opinion regarding Trump's recent statement regarding Syrian 'refugees', that there's plenty of room in Saudi Arabia? [198 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Anon.Apr 12, 2016 08:12228905
The Gingham Trump and the Calico Cruz [386 words]Michael SApr 11, 2016 15:33228886
Trump arouses passions [90 words]Kevin BjornsonApr 11, 2016 13:33228883
Libertarians [77 words]yonasonApr 13, 2016 15:18228883
1Libertarians for Trump [174 words]Kevin BjornsonApr 15, 2016 15:09228883
The Devil you know [52 words]Steven ShermanApr 11, 2016 11:13228881
1Everyone has an opinion [64 words]JohnApr 11, 2016 06:49228875
No permanent safety among the goiim [739 words]Michael SApr 10, 2016 23:12228868
I don't find the poll results surprising at all !! [40 words]CARLOS DESOUZAApr 10, 2016 22:06228867
1he gets about two-fifths of the Republican vote and close to zero of the Democratic one - IRONIC [11 words]MarkApr 10, 2016 18:04228861
1MEF's surprising poll on Donald Trump- response to Mark [189 words]Anne USAApr 12, 2016 12:43228861
I would only add that yes, Trump is essentially a Dem, but the Dems have moved left to socialism. [EOM] [20 words]MarkApr 15, 2016 07:54228861
Win Win Situation For The Left? [119 words]yonasonApr 19, 2016 12:09228861
1Mef's surprising poll on Donald Trump.... The Left has really picked the Republican nominee. response to Yonason [514 words]Anne USAApr 21, 2016 08:26228861
do you prefer the guillotine or the firing squad, monsieur? [301 words]doug schulek-millerApr 10, 2016 17:08228859
Left, Right, Religion, Trump and the Media [613 words]Michael S.Apr 15, 2016 10:37228859
not trusting any would be wise... [343 words]Doug Schulek-MillerApr 18, 2016 01:01228859
Are we better or worse than in 1963? Yes and yes. [827 words]Michael SApr 22, 2016 18:48228859
1Stop destroying the Republican Party NOW. [207 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Michael SApr 10, 2016 16:57228858
Trump, Hillary and the Angel Moroni [428 words]Michael SApr 12, 2016 04:55228858
Vehemently Anti-Democrat [225 words]yonasonApr 10, 2016 16:56228857
1The Missing (Two-part) Viewpoint [280 words]Ron ThompsonApr 10, 2016 16:36228856
A third way [431 words]Michael SApr 14, 2016 14:40228856
We do indeed live in divisive times .. [266 words]Anne JulienneApr 20, 2016 21:16228856
.. i like your god .. [15 words]Anne JulienneApr 21, 2016 03:35228856
God's gender [106 words]Michael SApr 23, 2016 03:42228856
Politics, Religion and History [1515 words]Michael SApr 24, 2016 01:54228856
no criticism (or feminist critique) intended [129 words]Anne JulienneApr 27, 2016 03:53228856
response to "Politics, Religion, and HIstory [376 words]Anne JulienneApr 27, 2016 06:14228856
Religion & Politics -- in US and Australia. Also, Cockney expressions [547 words]Michael SMay 1, 2016 12:09228856
3What's so surprising? [89 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Leon KushnerApr 10, 2016 16:01228852
Tweedle Trump, Tweedle Clinton and Tweedle Obama are apparently our lot in the coming years [901 words]Michael SApr 13, 2016 11:50228852
Your straw poll ... [33 words]TRMApr 10, 2016 16:00228851
Candidates of today leave a lot to be desired. [246 words]Anne.....USAApr 10, 2016 15:52228850
Clinton [64 words]steven LApr 10, 2016 15:41228848
1It isn't due to vehement anti-Hillary sentiments [96 words]Anon.Apr 10, 2016 14:09228846

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