Netanyahu is likely to continue as PM

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Feb 15, 2015 at 09:47

Hi, Anne.

I think you've covered all bases there.

The latest poll shows the true "Zionist" camp (Likud-Beiteinu-Jewish Home-Otzma-Yachad) with 47 seats, four more than what they hold now; Leftist parties Labor-Hatnuah-Meretz should get 29 seats (they currently hold 27), and the religious parties Shas-UTJ should get 15, vs. 18 today. I didn't count Jewish Home as "Religious", because they actually participate with interest in Land-of-Israel issues, as opposed to the other religious, who have a record of holding the Zionist cause hostage to their own petty interests. 47 + 29 + 15 = 91 seats, leaving 16 for centrist parties Yesh Atid-Yachad (19 in the current Knesset) and 13 for the Arab parties (vs. 11 today).

The biggest loser should be Yesh Atid, which had a surprisingly strong showing in the last election; and the Zionist camp promises to gain a bit. Yesh Atid had essentially amounted to the "Tel Aviv Protest Vote", which focused on economic matters more than Zionist matters. Netanyahu will almost certainly be the one chosen to form a ruling coalition, which he will probably draw from the Zionist camp, one of the two purely religious parties, and one of the two centrist parties. Some surprises are bound to happen; but it looks as though the Netanyahu-led coalition will continue for some years (to the annoyance of President Obama).

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