Possible ME shift afoot March 2015

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Mar 1, 2015 at 19:59

Hi, Doug

It's been a while since you posted this piece, but I thought your mention of the "three quarrelling groups", which exist to this day, makes it still relevant.

It's bit of a tangle, trying to follow who's on who's side nowadays in the Middle East. Up until the death Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah thi past month, most of the Arab world -- led by The Saudis an Egyptians -- was in a tactical alliance with Israel against Al Qaeda and Da'esh, as well as against Iran and its proxies. A second conflict has contnued, between the Saudi-led coalition and Turkey, the latter being led by a Muslim Brotherhood/ Hams affiliate. Egypt and the UAE have deepened this divide, declaring Hamas, in all is forms, to be a terrorist organization.

With the King's death, Saudi Arabia's position againt Turkey and the Brotherhood seems to be softening at the same time that Egypt's ties with Russia, on the one hand, and the CIA-installed Libyan general Haftar, on the other, have been strengthening. A recent Pravda-RT article has even suggested that Russia, Egypt and ...hold you hat... Italy are all plotting an attackagainst Da'esh (ISIL & c) in Libya, a move opposed by the Turkish-allied Gulf countr of Qatar; and that at the same time, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries (other than UAE) are lining up moe with Turkey and Qatar.

That' all a lot to swallow; but it shows some possible movement in alliances. Russia has, up until now, been a close ally of Iran and Syria -- a country which hosts port facilities for the Russians at Tartus. Now that Russia is cutting new deals with the Egyptians for even better facilities at Alexandria, it may be disengaging itself from the Turkish and Saudi vs. Syrian/ Iranian/ Hizbullah mess in the Levant. It would be a real dos-a-dos if it were to materialize.

Where are the Kurds in all this? Who knows. I don't even know where the Americans stand; and I'm an American!

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".