Little chance

Submitted by PezDispenser (Israel), Sep 1, 2016 at 03:48

Dr. Pipes,

I think you are correct but I'm pessimistic that such a worldview and overall policy will be adopted in Israel or in the US anytime soon. One big problem with your policy is that wearing down the morale and will of the enemy side often conflicts with short term considerations. For example, sending thousands of aid trucks to Gaza and providing free electricity is not a way to wear down morale, but it is arguably an effective way to maintain some relative short term quiet and somewhat relieve international harassment.

On the American side, polls show that the millennial generation is the most unenthusiastic about the US-Israel alliance, so unless their opinions change as they mature, US backing for this policy change may be even less realistic than ever before. Also, the idea of concessions first by Israel (i.e the 2 State Solution) is so ingrained in the minds of the Western elite that it reaches the level of religious dogma. Not even the GOP is unified in this regard - Bush was involved in pressuring Israel on the Palestinian front and even Trump the populist wants to play deal maker.

In sum, it seems to me that there are too many domestic and international barriers for Israel and the USA for a change anytime soon. Short term Israeli considerations of muddling through, tactical appeasement to avoid international pariah status, putting out fires, maintaining ties to less hostile Arab regimes, and pushing off future warfare as far as possible will likely remain the way things are handled.

That said, there are always jokers in the deck such as Lieberman, so we'll see.

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