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To Ianus on America and Chaos theory

Reader comment on item: Innocents Abroad Build Foreign Armies
in response to reader comment: Chaos as the new US strategy and "Reflections on the overthrow of communism"

Submitted by Peter Herz (United States), Feb 20, 2013 at 21:47

Ianus: As a former US Foreign Service Officer, I am a little sceptical about what they say about "Applied Chaos Theory". You seem to believe that my old shop is using it to hatch nefarious plots against a world that is basically peace-loving (and please forgive me if I have misread you); I have a different take.

Most American foreign policy professionals entered their trade as liberal internationalists, believing firmly in human rationality , the possibility of an international rule of law, and the usefulness of strong international institutions. The recent interest in chaos theory, I suspect, stems from people who've been working in international relations for some time coming to see chaos theory as a better explanation of how the world actually works --not as a tool to achieve world domination. The "application" is more reactive than proactive (as the Soviets rightly characterized us during the Cold War), in that it seeks to keep the USA from being burned to badly in a dangerous world that has caught fire, and will continue to be full of flammable material long after the current fire is put out. Talk to any dozen American foreign policy wonks, and they will still want a tidy, orderly world and welcome stability when it is possible--even if they have come to recognize that our species isn't really all that pacific.

I've noticed your tiffs with Kepha Hor myself. Yet, having served in China during the 1990's, I beg to differ that support for an "independent Uighuristan" is part of our foreign policy. Foggy Bottom believes that the guns, money, and demogrpahics are on the side of Beijing, and while we are critical of the human rights record, we do not see one more impoverished Central Asian state as a viable option.

However, to apply a little chaos theory, one does not impose government at gunpoint, engage in occasional massacre, force a Muslim people to raise pigs, and then expect them to remain grateful for a "liberation" which has decreased their numbers and impoverished them when your iron fist yields--either because of genuine liberalization or because it's getting a bit rusty with the vicissitudes of time (yes, I admit that I am skeptical of the Marxist claim to have found the means of predicting and controlling history). Indeed, when Xinjiang's problems fell like a t--d on my doorstep when I was in China, I and my colleagues got the sinking feeling that the Uighur had seen the Soviet collapse and concluded that the regime is mortal, not that they're better off in a growing Chinese economy. Also, in non-Uighur parts of Chinese Islam, there is also dissidence, albeit one that seeks increased religious liberties within the context of a Chinese state rather than separatism. In this, China's Hui Muslims are not unlike other religious believers. If they are also for political changes, it is probably because they see them as more conducive to their cultic concerns.

And, looking at the wider Islamic world, it has long been notorious for poorly grounded institutions, lack of regime legitimacy, and a number of other problems (many of which Dr. Pipes is better qualified to comment on than I). It's likely to be an area of ferment for some time to come, whether outside powers tweak it or not; and American diplomats do not serve their country well if they do not take note of the problems.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (27) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
Babes in the woods......... [60 words]Kenneth Duke MastersMar 8, 2013 14:38204126
naive policy [30 words]Fred SchwartzFeb 15, 2013 17:36203538
7More on Major Nidal [123 words]Mark WerfelFeb 14, 2013 08:30203496
The plan all along [188 words]DEBORAH THE JUDGEFeb 13, 2013 18:45203471
1Innocents Abroad Build Foreign Armies [12 words]SOLFeb 13, 2013 10:32203450
Ben Franklin was the last... [151 words]DmitryFeb 13, 2013 09:59203449
Mark Twain Nodding In Agreement. [40 words]Charles GriffithFeb 13, 2013 04:30203442
1Corporate profits from training [65 words]Richard WeissmanFeb 12, 2013 22:59203434
TRAINING YOUR ENEMIES [122 words]JACQUES HADIDAFeb 14, 2013 19:48203434
12Tell me, who is surprised? [277 words]Mark WerfelFeb 12, 2013 20:17203432
2Fundamentalist Islam as America's strategic ally [142 words]IanusFeb 14, 2013 02:38203432
2The War on Terror [29 words]Howard MarksFeb 14, 2013 21:56203432
4Do Allies Cheat or Kill Friends? [419 words]Mark WerfelFeb 15, 2013 00:08203432
2"Who can we trust, in the end? Who is telling us the truth?" - Two most fundamental questions [236 words]IanusFeb 16, 2013 05:08203432
OPEC oil imports into US declining [132 words]Howard MarksFeb 19, 2013 09:24203432
And we PAY these people [25 words]EthanPFeb 12, 2013 19:33203430
3No insanity , a method [149 words]IanusFeb 14, 2013 03:21203430
Don't forget Iraq, Dr. Pipes. [88 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Aymenn Jawad Al-TamimiFeb 11, 2013 13:55203404
That's only half the story [65 words]BJFeb 13, 2013 20:38203404
1The Soviets were not the same. [141 words]IanusFeb 14, 2013 02:51203404
2Here's why America doesn't create stability [260 words]Kepha HorFeb 17, 2013 09:01203404
3Chaos as the new US strategy and "Reflections on the overthrow of communism" [414 words]IanusFeb 18, 2013 08:04203404
As an American, I only wish... [262 words]Kepha HorFeb 20, 2013 21:13203404
To Ianus on America and Chaos theory [567 words]Peter HerzFeb 20, 2013 21:47203404
2Uncle Sam and Uncle Saud [1147 words]IanusFeb 22, 2013 07:15203404
2The apostle of chaos [2666 words]IanusFeb 24, 2013 15:42203404
4policing home and abroad [91 words]mythFeb 11, 2013 11:11203402

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