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Both, and neither

Reader comment on item: Did the CIA Fiddle With Population Statistics about Iran?
in response to reader comment: I have an answer that the CIA can use

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Jan 9, 2015 at 06:40

Hi, Daniel

Yes, you have pointed out what seem to be major discrepancies. Let me reiterate them here:

1. The Persian population is shown by the CIA to have suddenly jumped from 50 to 60%

2. The Azeris seem to have fallen by 8% of the population, and

3. The Gilakis and Mazandaranis seem to have vanished.

Before I get into too much detail on this, let me plainly state something that I only implied in the previous post: The CIA is our foremost "Intelligence" agency, and we therefore think they must be "intelligent". They're really just a little better than so-so, in a world where the Arabs believe the Blood Libel, 80% of Europeans think Israel is the greatest threat to world peace, the majority of Americans can't find Israel on the map, and many US high school graduates think the Middle East is somewhere between Kansas and West Virginia. I take ALL their figures with a grain of salt.

Moving on from there, notice that I mentioned how difficult it is even to define ethnic groups in the US. I'm about 6% Jewish, 7% Native American, 12% Scotch-Irish, bits of Norwegian, German, Huguenot, probably more English (Yankee) than anything else, a big bunch of Dutch and Plattdeutsch, about a quarter Slovenian, part Croatian, Austrian... that's about it. My wife's a bit of a mix herself, and my son-in-law is Chinese. I explained to my granddaughter, that we're like an oatmeal-and raisin cookie: not just flour or sugar, which would be sort of yucky, but this yummy mix. She really liked that explanation, but I think the CIA fact-finders would have a hard time with the likes of my granddaughter and me.

I got some emails a few years back from a newly-found relative in Slovenia -- someone from my presumed Jewish line, whose grandfather was murdered in Auschwitz as a non-Jew (triangular badge). Her grandfather was Catholic, all misched in with Slovenian, etc.; and her father's side were Croatians from opposing sides during the war. So even in Europe, folks are all mixed together.

I would guess that many Azeris, and even more Gilakis and Mazandaranis, have become Persianized, just as I and my ancestors have become Anglicized. Couple this, with a general lack of good numbers in Iran, and I'm not surprised to see 10% lurches.

The general direction of the changes that you mentioned seem to be in the right direction. Just look at the Germans, by comparison. When my Hamburg ancestor joined the Dutch Army and came to America in the mid-1600s, he natively spoke a language that was closer to Dutch than German; and he probably couldn't even understand what we call "German". Nowadays, in fact, I believe there are more Plattdeutsch speakers (the language that used to be spoken in Hamburg) in places like Illinois, than there are in Germany. People all over the world are QUICKLY becoming assimilated into the dominant culture in their countries. As an American Jew, you are probably acutely aware of this.

Here's a good example. I read recently, about an Israeli who addressed a meeting of Moroccans in fluent Arabic. He was told to speak French: because some of the Moroccans, especially the Tamazight, speak Arabic poorly, many "Arabic" speakers cannot understand standard Arabic (they speak a dialect), and many educated Moroccans speak French as their first language. Some Moroccans also speak Spanish; but the overwhelming sentiment of the Moroccan comments were that English should have been used instead of French, because more of the young people understood it. The CIA Factbook lists Morocco as:

Ethnic groups:
Arab-Berber 99%, other 1%
Languages:
Arabic (official), Berber languages (Tamazight (official), Tachelhit, Tarifit), French (often the language of business, government, and diplomacy)

Note that "Arabs" and "Berbers" have become "Arab-Berbers"; and that English isn't even mentioned. Wikipedia gives a different picture:

Official languages: Arabic (80-90%), Berber (40-50%)
Vernaculars: Riffian, Shilha, Central Tamazight, Darija, Hassanya
Main foreign languages: French (33-39%)[1][2], Spanish (21%)[3], English (14%)[4]
Sign languages: MSL

They even include a map, dividing up the country -- with no "Arab-Berber" area at all. Which one is right? Both, and neither.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (39) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
The Iranian data from different countries sources [65 words]OlehFeb 21, 2019 11:06247876
My Letter in Jerusalem Post On LIberating Iran [269 words]DaveJan 23, 2018 19:21241958
Is there such ethnic group as "Persians" at all? [301 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
gato brancoJan 18, 2018 07:26241895
1Honestly it does not matter!! [186 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
PrashantJan 7, 2018 05:13241785
Point taken [47 words]PrashantJan 7, 2018 09:35241785
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3Indian interests are subservient to human interests [139 words]PrashantJan 16, 2018 18:04241785
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3Fact checking DNM [168 words]PrashantJun 13, 2018 00:21241785
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1For Prashant: No wonder most tablighees tell us these days that they are Qur'an only Muslims! [113 words]dhimmi no moreJun 13, 2018 13:53241785
3More Islamic disasters? Allah says that the Qur'an is really a Hadith! [99 words]dhimmi no moreJun 14, 2018 06:14241785
2Who is really Iranian? [103 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
dhimmi no moreJan 6, 2018 11:42241780
I, too, found the World Factbook inconsistent. [116 words]GWKJan 15, 2015 12:08220386
we should all demand an answer for confirmation: 5UGH8Y [68 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Eric LevineJan 9, 2015 17:28220209
we should all demand an answer for confirmation: 5UGH8Y [19 words]Eric LevineJan 9, 2015 17:19220207
2The Demographics of Iran by Columbia University's Gulf/2000 Project (G2K) [170 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Mohammad AbbasJan 9, 2015 10:02220194
Accurate to ±30% [214 words]Michael SJan 18, 2015 18:49220194
Assume the IranGov has the most accurate data [53 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
1timeJan 8, 2015 18:37220185
1CIA statistics [59 words]Joseph P. MartinoJan 7, 2015 19:59220157
Commence Self-destruct Mode [86 words]AlexJan 6, 2015 16:22220124
Obama Appeasement Of Iran May Have Unexpected Benefits [69 words]DaveJan 6, 2015 07:10220122
... article [67 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
AnonymousJan 5, 2015 19:05220113
When I was in Iran [85 words]William A. WheatleyJan 5, 2015 18:58220112
Follow Up [314 words]Eldad J. pardoJan 5, 2015 17:12220111
1Population Statistics [111 words]Laina Farhat-HolzmanJan 5, 2015 16:22220110
I have an answer that the CIA can use [219 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Michael SJan 5, 2015 15:35220107
Both, and neither [689 words]Michael SJan 9, 2015 06:40220107
Wrong timescale [177 words]MilhouseJan 5, 2015 15:06220106
It's even worse [44 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
Ron GerskupJan 5, 2015 10:44220103
Real academic work [120 words]Lorenz GudeJan 5, 2015 09:27220102
2Is it really a Persian ethno-dictatorship if the supreme leader is Azeri? [50 words]GauchoNYCJan 5, 2015 08:34220101
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So what? [58 words]Peter HerzJun 27, 2018 14:08220101
1CIA needs to be more accountable to Americans [50 words]Michael Hanni MorcosJan 5, 2015 08:19220100

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