Betting on Egypt

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Aug 1, 2015 at 21:34

Hello, Mark. You said,

You are currently and due to the current economic problems, think that Egypt is done or does not count for much.

I said,

on the other hand, (Egypt) is very much to be reckoned with because of its large population and long, impressive history.

As I said elsewhere, "It's a matter of scale". (Also, please don't call me "Dear" -- I don't even know you.) You went on to say,

you tend to neglect or avoid the bright future of this country.

I can't see into the future, and neither can the investment banks. What I do see (in the present) is an increasing population sustained by a river with a decreasing flow rate. That portends a crisis, not a "bright future". I also am aware of a massive ongoing infusion of cash into Egypt from the GCC, even though the current Saudi leader supports the same Muslim Brotherhood that is working to undermine and destroy the Sisi government. The fact that the Egyptian leaders have been going begging to Saudi King Salman, repaying the favor by supporting him in Yemen, tells me that Egypt is desperate. On this point, you said,

Yes, Egypt currenlty receives support from the gulf countries, but who said that this situation will last long. Egypt will register 5% economic growth this current financial year and despite the security situation, this country is attracting more and more FDI... I truly wonder the motives behind your negative view about Egypt.

"Motives"? I don't need motives to see what is in plain view. You're trusting in hope of a particular future; I'm just telling you what I see -- and by the way, I do not sympathize, as you are implying, with the Muslim Brotherhood. Get real.

What is your own interest in Egypt? Are you planning to invest capital in the country? Are you in an Egyptian mutual fund? If you really believe what you're saying here, you should be. If you are, remember the warning of all such funds:

"Past performance is not a guarantee of future results."

At the moment, I do not see any Muslim country as inherently stable, even presumed "islands of stability" such as Kuwait and the UAE. I don't own stock, to my knowledge, in any of them; and the part of the business community I am aware of personally shies away from them. By contrast, I am bullish on Israel: I would literally bet my life on their survival.

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