Clarification for Dr Pipes

Submitted by Raul Marks, Feb 4, 2019 at 17:27

Dear Dr Pipes,

You replied to my original comment that you don't believe a "quantitative analysis works here". I agree. However, I had written about a QUALITATIVE (not quantitative) approach.

For example, while the Gulf Sunni Arab states command great following throughout the Islamic world on account of their wealth, and control over Mecca and Medina, the bulk of the Muslim world's population resides outside that region. For example the population of Bangladesh alone exceeds that of the entire GCC (KSA, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman) several fold. Then you add Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey, you get a significant bloc. Those countries will continue to have their ties to say Saudi Arabia, but will they be any closer to Israel in the forseeable future in the absence of what they feel is a "just" solution vis a vis the Palestinians?

Its important to note that countries like Pakistan or Indonesia don't have any contentions with Israel except in relation to the Palestinian Question.

The second critical question is what will happen with the alliance with the Sunni Arabs once the problem from Iran is neutralized or eliminated? Will the alliance still hold? Surely, Iran will be dealt with one way or another. Either Israel will act, or the US will, or we go back to some form of the JCPOA (if Democrats win US elections in 2020 or 2024). When Iran is no longer a threat, will the Sunni Arabs continue to stand by Israel?

And finally, it appears as though the Sunni Arabs are putting some pressure on the Palestinians already. What happens if the Palestinians resist Sunni Arab pressure and replace that support with the EU or non-Arab Muslim nations like Turkey (already occuring), Pakistan, Indonesia, etc?

The support from Gulf Nations is really only financial and somewhat morale...both easily replaceable. What if the Palestinian calculus is that Gulf support has failed for 70 years, so its not big loss, just like financial aid from the US government?

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