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Israel is determined - No, it is a simple, tragic crisis mechanism

Reader comment on item: Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran

Submitted by Michel C.Zala (Switzerland), Feb 15, 2012 at 12:08

I believe that the true tragedy is, how little individuals and politicians in either Israel or America actually can influence the situation, since the (present and future) escalation follows the laws of a basic crisis mechanism.

What many, especially in Europe, where a strong anti-Israel trend is clearly manifested, do not see, is the current fragile balance of power in the region, preventing any nation from greater adventures (outright war).

This balance results from a 100:1 ratio in conventional means between Israel and its Arab/Muslim neighbors, albeit equalized by Israel's so far sole nuclear capability. The second, Iran acquires nukes, that balance is out the window, inviting any of the many anti-Israel regimes to engage in such adventures.

Secondly, Iran and its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah etc. have openly and clearly denied ISR any right to exist, even claimed just last week the wohle of Palestine to be theirs and theirs alone.

In addition to that, Iran, for decades now, has openly proliferated weapons to their proxies and thus led an undeclared war against ISR. The recent bombings and terror attacks against ISR embassy personell lay evidence to that fact as well.

The aforementioned pieces of evidence prove clearly that ISR at present finds itself right smack in the middle of an (undeclared) war already with an enemy who openly, clearly, repeatedly and loudly proclaimed that the state of ISR must be eradicated.

For aforementioned reasons, the simple announcement by Iran to have completed the development of nuclear weapons would have to be understood by the ISR government as a formal declaration of war.

By sheer mechanism, almost automatism, it would trigger the corresponding response - likely an attack with tactical nuclear weapons, which would be the only way to effectively delay their progress, as , according to CIA factbooks of recent years, the Iranians have decentralized their installations in over 40 locations, partly deeply buried underground, partly close to civilian (hospitals, schools, mosques) centers. ISR lacks the logistical and military means to successfully carry out a conventional air assault on that many, well defended and shielded targets in such long distance, remote locations.

My point is: this is not a question, if ISR will attack Iran, should they, as it seems to be the case, pursue their ambitionis and intents to acquire nuclear weaponry - ISR finds itself in a no-win situation, where there is no choice, no wiggle room, no compromise, but must at least trey to take those installations out, as the alternative bears a way too high risk. It is not a question of if - it has become a question of when, since by most accounts, Iran has passed the point of no return already.

Apart from the fact, that one party already leads an undeclared war against the other with clearly voiced and publicised goals for Palestine, the destruction and annihilation of the Jewish state, which is why such efforts must be understood as solely an escalation from undeclared to formal declaration of war, ISR in addition to aformentioned crisis frame conditions has no room for error, because there is no strategic depth. The country is so small, that even one single nuclear explosion, resulting in Tschernobyl type abandoning of a several hundred square miles for generations to come, would likely devastate the nation to the extent of its destruction, while muslims have ample territory to relocate. This is another reason, why ISR can't even consider to allow for any risk so ever and must again see the Iranian efforts as an outright declaration of war. Ifr ISR had the size of America or Russia, they would have the "luxury" to wait for a first move by the Iranians, as the country could absorb a nuclear strike, direct or via proxy, which seems to be the preferred modus operandi of the Iranian regime anyway.

Having said all that, in my humble opinion it boils down to ISR having to select the lesser of two evils. It may well come to the decison between being the hated, despised and by the world condemned "aggressor" , yet still alive or the pitied, grieved victim (again), but this time destroyed.

The currrent ISR risk assessment, I sadly feel, must be seen as being forced to select the "right " moment to hit the Iranian nuclear sites. Will it be a preventive strike, based upon intelligence reports, which does not count for much in the world anymore (WDM Saddam), or will they wait to the very last moment, the official proclamation by the Iranian regime to have developed a nuke, a quite suicidal move by the Ayatollahs, albeit possible due to their often demonstrated hubris. The distinct possibility for an election of a GOP candidate over Obama may also play a role in the ISR decision making process, which however may motivate the Iranians to accelerate their efforts to complete the work before the US election. The current state of the affairs in Egypt, Iraq and Syria, preventing those nations to deliver a concerted effort against ISR in case of a strike against Iran must also be factored into the decision making process.

All current factors considered, I believe that Iran, if they can do it, will try to present the world with a fait accompli before November hoping, that ISR lacks the means to unilaterally conduct such a difficult military operation. If enough indices for that surface, or Iran has the audacity to proclaim such, ISR will be cornered into a strike. If enough evidence appears that Iran needs longer than that, and a GOP President comes to power in America, there might be a chance for the Iranian regime to caving in to the world's demands, even though their often mainfested (religion based) willingness to commit (collective) suicide in the name of djihaad and their clear chartas must be seen as troubling.

Right now, it seems to me that the chances for a war in 2012 are much higher than later conflicts, let alone for a truce or even peace. Unless Iran demonstratively walks away from its nuclear ambitions - translated, formal declaration of war against ISR - a strike against Iran by ISR will remain the logical, foreseeable and automated outcome. Any other reaction by the Israeli government would be criminally negligent, considering it's role of protecting its people.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (49) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
1Hoorah for Israel [41 words]NeilFeb 23, 2012 16:25193592
PREDICTIONS OF AN ISRAELI STRIKE [95 words]JACQUES HADIDAFeb 17, 2012 16:27193432
1Israel is determined - No, it is a simple, tragic crisis mechanism [1053 words]Michel C.ZalaFeb 15, 2012 12:08193394
3Israel's Plight - A Right to Fight In Spite of the World's Might [345 words]M. ToveyFeb 16, 2012 18:53193394
1Bombing [49 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
NataliyaFeb 13, 2012 15:35193355
And now, US officials blabbing about Israel's plans too [56 words]saraFeb 9, 2012 19:27193255
panetta's unclear language [195 words]mythFeb 9, 2012 12:25193249
2Why Israel Has No Other Choice [243 words]P. SchwartzFeb 7, 2012 22:53193188
2Israel is a Sword [20 words]NeilFeb 23, 2012 16:49193188
1Obama sum of cynicism [385 words]PhilippeFeb 7, 2012 08:08193167
1you think like me [20 words]jackFeb 8, 2012 22:36193167
2An Administration Confused and Cynical at once [388 words]John W McGinleyFeb 6, 2012 10:29193139
2Jewish voting block vastly exaggerated [114 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:24193139
"Why the need to pander to them." [127 words]HarryFeb 7, 2012 10:04193139
1Harry, you miss my point [170 words]saraFeb 7, 2012 20:37193139
Obama Betting on Sanctions [14 words]Tom TrueFeb 28, 2012 12:05193139
Likely that Israel will attack, but unfortunate for the world. [106 words]Jon from EurolandFeb 6, 2012 09:11193138
4to Jon from Euroland [96 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:17193138
1Consequences [122 words]Jon from EurolandFeb 8, 2012 07:08193138
Written words offer wiggle room? How? [17 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
SimonFeb 6, 2012 07:51193136
Not accurate [59 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
JKFeb 6, 2012 07:44193135
Spies. [34 words]Dennis WojciakFeb 6, 2012 04:50193129
2Panetta was told to shoot off his mouth [123 words]Alaska PaulFeb 6, 2012 01:13193120
Do they mean business? [87 words]David W. LincolnFeb 5, 2012 17:57193105
Good Cop-Bad Cop [173 words]Barry BlackFeb 5, 2012 12:00193099
Predicting an Israeli Strike on Iran...What Buffoons [80 words]AnneFeb 5, 2012 06:55193087
1Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran [188 words]JudithFeb 4, 2012 22:41193081
10I find it a bit ludicous [129 words]saraFeb 4, 2012 18:45193065
1Really [48 words]HarryFeb 6, 2012 11:55193065
Well, Harry, that is my point [149 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:50193065
3Israel vs West on Attacking Iran [80 words]Anatoly TsaliovichFeb 4, 2012 18:34193064
2It doesn't make much sense [134 words]StanleyFeb 4, 2012 18:29193063
5An Israeli attack is doubtful [501 words]Ken BesigFeb 4, 2012 17:51193062
Unfortunately, Isreal has no choice. [71 words]DarrellFeb 6, 2012 00:20193062
The Timing For Israel is Critical - Yet the Israeli's Will Not Control It. [108 words]M. ToveyFeb 6, 2012 13:16193062
It is not aboutif, but when ISR will strike [395 words]Stonewall JacksonFeb 16, 2012 12:05193062
4Prisoner's Dilemma [1058 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 17, 2012 14:09193062
Looking for the Regal Reprieve for the Prisoner [469 words]M. ToveyFeb 21, 2012 11:33193062
2Addendum [431 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 23, 2012 10:12193062
2Addendum II [359 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 26, 2012 12:05193062
Addendum with Clarification Leading to a Second Addendum [228 words]M. ToveyFeb 27, 2012 19:22193062
Why is ISR not acting now? Variables, Turkey, Syria and Iran [814 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 29, 2012 13:55193062
2An ISR viewpoint which opens up possibilities [508 words]Michel C. ZalaMar 2, 2012 15:11193062
3The Dilemma - Outstanding Article by Ari Shavit, Haaretz [670 words]StonewallJacksonMar 15, 2012 12:39193062
Wait for it...wait for it... [418 words]M. ToveyMay 24, 2012 18:43193062
Beating The Twelvers Of Iran [15 words]CliffordFeb 4, 2012 15:13193056
1Panetta Predicts [49 words]Nenette GrunbergFeb 4, 2012 14:07193054
3Huh? [104 words]Dan LenardFeb 4, 2012 13:47193051
2This Opinion [101 words]Jay1Feb 4, 2012 13:25193050

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