Addendum

Submitted by Michel C. Zala (Switzerland), Feb 23, 2012 at 10:12

I may have to clarify an important point.

Iran has decentralized its nuclear installation in over 40 (known) locations, many of them deeply buried underground. Also it has placed a lot of them near civilian centers, such as mosques and schools, hospitals and city agglomerations. ISR does not at present have the bunker busting technology. ISR also does not have the logistical means to conduct a conventional airstrike at this distance (on flight refueling 2 x would be required), against this many installations (heavily fortified and outfitted with last generation air defense systems (Russia made and provided). Many of the targets would have to be hit several times.

For all these reasons ISR would have no choice but to employ (tactical) nukes, resulting in unmeasurable collateral damage and loss of (civilian) life.

Unless the US clandestinely supplied their latest bunker busting bombs to the ISRs or is in the process of doing so (highly doubtful under the Obama Admin.), Isr will indeed be put in a terrible dilemma:

Be the aggressor in the eyes of the world, commit a terrible crime against humanity and quite possibly enter history as the one nation which initiated the very first nuclear war with multiple nuclear strikes - but survive as a nation or enter history as the greatest victim of all times again, be destroyed as a nation in the middle east, but be again pitied and grieved. Win the world opinion and die or survive and be condemned.

It is a no-win situation. The tragedy is that the Iranians are faced with a win-win proposition at the same time, as they can and will, due to Iran's strategic depth, survive even a nuclear attack. being attac ked, they win ( the PR war ) and the Arab world may well rise up as one against ISR, which is precisely what the (fanatical, rabid and irrational) regime wants and would be willing to pay the price for.

Not being attacked, they will acquire the means to directly or indirectly via proxies destroy the hated jewish state.

This is the reason, why they will not abandon their plans. Normal means of deterrents do not apply here. There is no difference between a handful of martyrs or thousands of them - just a simple extrapolation. Further tragedy consists insofar, as the Iranian People most likely would not subscribe to a policy of collective suicide, but lack the means to overthrow their deeply penetrated regime.

As with the NAZIS, an oligarchy of fanatics may well lead their people into a level of destruction so far unheard of.

Note: Opinions expressed in comments are those of the authors alone and not necessarily those of Daniel Pipes. Original writing only, please. Comments are screened and in some cases edited before posting. Reasoned disagreement is welcome but not comments that are scurrilous, off-topic, commercial, disparaging religions, or otherwise inappropriate. For complete regulations, see the "Guidelines for Reader Comments".