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It is not aboutif, but when ISR will strike

Reader comment on item: Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran
in response to reader comment: An Israeli attack is doubtful

Submitted by Stonewall Jackson (Switzerland), Feb 16, 2012 at 12:05

You make good points, albeit there is no will not even in America, let alone in Europe to issue the "Holocaust Declaration", the automated response by for instance America or NATO to answer any nuclear attack carried out by Iran with a nuclear counter attack.

Apart from the lack of any political will to enter into an agreement which my force the hands of nations like France, GB or America and has an inherent danger of built-in escalation, which may result in WWIII, Iran likely would not attack ISR, because they do not have to. It would be so much easier to simply proliferate a tactical nuke to Hamas or Hezbollah who would in turn carry out the attack, and then handle the literal fall out with plausible deniability, just like the issue statements over statements, denying any involvement in the recent embassy bombings.

ISR understands the potential proliferation of nuclear weapons as a much higher risk. In the entire Muslim world there are evidently ample quantities of fanatic islamists available willing to blow themselves up in the name of djhaad. The current party line in these demographics is, if we can't have it, then nobody shall (for several generations). If a third of ISR becomes a nuclear wasteland, the Jews have nowhere to go in the region. The muslims can wait a few gererations, living in neighboring countries, as the Jews would have to be relocated to another continent, likely to North America.

Pragmatic risk assessment clearly dictates that ISR can not allow for Iran acquiring a nuke. You are, to use an analogy, already in a firefight with another gang, using revolvers (having heavy artillery in reserve, while carrying out a limited, local conflict with little danger of escalation to a regional, let alone a global full-on war) and suddenly the other side may get heavy artillery, grenade launchers, machine guns, rockets and tanks). What do you do? Will you bring out your own heavy guns, before the other side has them or will you wait, until they got them? it is one or the other. but most definitely not the third option, where you wait, until the other side fired all their heavy weapons.

This is why I dispute your notion, that an ISR strike is doubtful. The only doubt in my scenario is, when the strike will happen - not if.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (49) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
1Hoorah for Israel [41 words]NeilFeb 23, 2012 16:25193592
PREDICTIONS OF AN ISRAELI STRIKE [95 words]JACQUES HADIDAFeb 17, 2012 16:27193432
1Israel is determined - No, it is a simple, tragic crisis mechanism [1053 words]Michel C.ZalaFeb 15, 2012 12:08193394
3Israel's Plight - A Right to Fight In Spite of the World's Might [345 words]M. ToveyFeb 16, 2012 18:53193394
1Bombing [49 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
NataliyaFeb 13, 2012 15:35193355
And now, US officials blabbing about Israel's plans too [56 words]saraFeb 9, 2012 19:27193255
panetta's unclear language [195 words]mythFeb 9, 2012 12:25193249
2Why Israel Has No Other Choice [243 words]P. SchwartzFeb 7, 2012 22:53193188
2Israel is a Sword [20 words]NeilFeb 23, 2012 16:49193188
1Obama sum of cynicism [385 words]PhilippeFeb 7, 2012 08:08193167
1you think like me [20 words]jackFeb 8, 2012 22:36193167
2An Administration Confused and Cynical at once [388 words]John W McGinleyFeb 6, 2012 10:29193139
2Jewish voting block vastly exaggerated [114 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:24193139
"Why the need to pander to them." [127 words]HarryFeb 7, 2012 10:04193139
1Harry, you miss my point [170 words]saraFeb 7, 2012 20:37193139
Obama Betting on Sanctions [14 words]Tom TrueFeb 28, 2012 12:05193139
Likely that Israel will attack, but unfortunate for the world. [106 words]Jon from EurolandFeb 6, 2012 09:11193138
4to Jon from Euroland [96 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:17193138
1Consequences [122 words]Jon from EurolandFeb 8, 2012 07:08193138
Written words offer wiggle room? How? [17 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
SimonFeb 6, 2012 07:51193136
Not accurate [59 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
JKFeb 6, 2012 07:44193135
Spies. [34 words]Dennis WojciakFeb 6, 2012 04:50193129
2Panetta was told to shoot off his mouth [123 words]Alaska PaulFeb 6, 2012 01:13193120
Do they mean business? [87 words]David W. LincolnFeb 5, 2012 17:57193105
Good Cop-Bad Cop [173 words]Barry BlackFeb 5, 2012 12:00193099
Predicting an Israeli Strike on Iran...What Buffoons [80 words]AnneFeb 5, 2012 06:55193087
1Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran [188 words]JudithFeb 4, 2012 22:41193081
10I find it a bit ludicous [129 words]saraFeb 4, 2012 18:45193065
1Really [48 words]HarryFeb 6, 2012 11:55193065
Well, Harry, that is my point [149 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:50193065
3Israel vs West on Attacking Iran [80 words]Anatoly TsaliovichFeb 4, 2012 18:34193064
2It doesn't make much sense [134 words]StanleyFeb 4, 2012 18:29193063
5An Israeli attack is doubtful [501 words]Ken BesigFeb 4, 2012 17:51193062
Unfortunately, Isreal has no choice. [71 words]DarrellFeb 6, 2012 00:20193062
The Timing For Israel is Critical - Yet the Israeli's Will Not Control It. [108 words]M. ToveyFeb 6, 2012 13:16193062
It is not aboutif, but when ISR will strike [395 words]Stonewall JacksonFeb 16, 2012 12:05193062
4Prisoner's Dilemma [1058 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 17, 2012 14:09193062
Looking for the Regal Reprieve for the Prisoner [469 words]M. ToveyFeb 21, 2012 11:33193062
2Addendum [431 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 23, 2012 10:12193062
2Addendum II [359 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 26, 2012 12:05193062
Addendum with Clarification Leading to a Second Addendum [228 words]M. ToveyFeb 27, 2012 19:22193062
Why is ISR not acting now? Variables, Turkey, Syria and Iran [814 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 29, 2012 13:55193062
2An ISR viewpoint which opens up possibilities [508 words]Michel C. ZalaMar 2, 2012 15:11193062
3The Dilemma - Outstanding Article by Ari Shavit, Haaretz [670 words]StonewallJacksonMar 15, 2012 12:39193062
Wait for it...wait for it... [418 words]M. ToveyMay 24, 2012 18:43193062
Beating The Twelvers Of Iran [15 words]CliffordFeb 4, 2012 15:13193056
1Panetta Predicts [49 words]Nenette GrunbergFeb 4, 2012 14:07193054
3Huh? [104 words]Dan LenardFeb 4, 2012 13:47193051
2This Opinion [101 words]Jay1Feb 4, 2012 13:25193050

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