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Prisoner's Dilemma

Reader comment on item: Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran
in response to reader comment: The Timing For Israel is Critical - Yet the Israeli's Will Not Control It.

Submitted by Michel C. Zala (Switzerland), Feb 17, 2012 at 14:09

I have to humbly disagree with your assessment insofar, as the situation in the region manifests itself in some form of a Prisoner's Dilemma, which is why there is a mechanism in place, where no individual or government can really manoeuver anymore, but actions follow a causal chain, an automatism of brutal logic. In political science we call such a Crisis Mechanism.

Picture the following scenario:

2 parties are at war. The war is conducted with hand guns. One party (ISR) has grenade launchers in reserve, but is not interested in any escalation, as a large amount of victims could destabilize the situation and pull in neighboring gangs or even the police into the conflict and turn the public opinion against them. So they keep the war localized, walled in, on a low level, which secures their own territory. The treat of their grenade launchers in reserve alone prevents other neighboring gangs to engaging openly and on a broad scale. Thus ISR conducts a defensive war without incurring too much risk for greater damage.

Now the paradigm shifts. The other side (Iran and proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah)) are working on getting their own grenade launchers. A dilemma presents itself :

1. Strike, before the other side has the weapons.

Safest choice for their own people. High risk of massive public opinon backlash, risk of broad escalation throughout the region. Risk of being branded "aggressor". Risk of losing support of friends (America)

2. Strike, before the other side uses their weapons

Hard to navigate the tight window of time. Medium Risk of being hit and destroyed, as they cannot absorb even one strike. High risk of still being branded "Aggressor". Pretty much same risks as above, while incurring higher risk of destruction.

3. Strike, after the other side used their weapons.

Highest risk of destruction, minimum risk of being branded as guilty party. The other party will be condemned and the UN will issue damning resolutions, but no real consequences for the other party, such as retaliation by friends. A no-win proposition for ISR. the world (UN) would never accept a nuclear retaliation against IRAN, while ISR will be irreversibly destroyed and Iran could absorb, due to strategic depth, several nuclear hits from the immediate counterstrike.

4. Not strike and hope for the best (negotiations, sanctions)

Negotiations and sanctions for decades now have proven to be ineffective, if not outright counter-productive. Iran Charta, Hamas, Hezbollah and a wide majority of all muslims thorughout the region do not accept ISRs right to exist. The direct involved parties have made their ambitions and goals very clear - the destruction of the jewish state and the whole of Palestine to be a muslim state. At present no truce, no armistice, but an ongoing (undeclared) war with thousands of rockets raining down on ISR every year.
Popular opinion in the West already against ISR. America (under Obama) ambivalent at best and the people fatigued by war and unwilling to engage in yet another. No Holocaust declaration, no shield or NATO membership as deterrent. Islamist trends in Turkey, Egypt, Jordan with deteriorating relationships to ISR throughout the region already. America already marginalized in Iraq and withdrawn. China and Russia successfully blocking any far-reaching action against Syria, have done and will do the same with regard to Iran.

Considering the role and duty of the ISR government to protect its people and safeguard its territory, the last scenario, if adopted, must be pragmatically considered by the ISR people as well as any objective observer as criminally negligent. The current political landscape in the region as well as World considered, one is hard pressed to find even a few arguments to support this highest risk scenario. If Iran will not acknowledge ISRs right to exist now, but pledged on many occasions that it would do anything to wipe it off the map, what could any objective observer possibly deduct, after Iran acquires nukes and effectively has the means to destroy the hated jewish state? In any criminal investigation, the perpetrator should have motive, means and opportunity. So far, the Iranians lacked the means. Once they have all of the prerequisites for this "crime", how could anyone possibly doubt, that these fanatics would ever follow through on their own promises?

In conclusion, I feel that, assuming the role of the ISR decision makers for a moment, it boils down to scenarios 1 and 2. Since ISR could not possibly absorb even one nuclear explosion, quite actually I would have to select option 1, even if that means that ISR would be branded the greatest criminal of all times.

The sad conclusion of the lesson is, that ISR may be forced to commit a terrible crime against humanity in order to survive, which is why they will wait to the very last possible moment.

There is one slither of hope

The terrible mechanism can be stopped, if Iran walks away from its nuclear ambitions. In fact, the future of the entire region, the lives of millions of people lay in the hands of the Iranian Ayatollahs. They would not even have to abandon their civil nuclear intentions, as the West was and is willing to support (and control) such efforts to safeguard the peace. But if they in their stubborness and shortsightedness decide to pursue their military ambitions, that in itself must be considered as a declaration of war. If the party who has openly declared to destroy me, is currently engaged in (terror) actions against me, has made their intentions and goals fully clear to me and the world, now gets the ultimate weapon, that in itself I must consider as an unacceptable threat. Scenario 4 is about as naive, as to assume that, if the other party, who has so far used revolvers against me, would for some reasons unknown abstain from using a grenade launcher?

It is the Iranians who will determine the outcome. It is clearly in their hands. No matter, if ISR will be forced to shoot the first bullet, the responsibility for the conflict will squarely lay on the shoulders of the Iranians.

Who is guilty - The lion who bites the person or the person(s) who corner the animal into an impossible situation? Root cause and ignition. ISR may well start the war, but it is Iran which will have caused it.

Submitting....

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Reader comments (49) on this item

Title Commenter Date Thread
1Hoorah for Israel [41 words]NeilFeb 23, 2012 16:25193592
PREDICTIONS OF AN ISRAELI STRIKE [95 words]JACQUES HADIDAFeb 17, 2012 16:27193432
1Israel is determined - No, it is a simple, tragic crisis mechanism [1053 words]Michel C.ZalaFeb 15, 2012 12:08193394
3Israel's Plight - A Right to Fight In Spite of the World's Might [345 words]M. ToveyFeb 16, 2012 18:53193394
1Bombing [49 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
NataliyaFeb 13, 2012 15:35193355
And now, US officials blabbing about Israel's plans too [56 words]saraFeb 9, 2012 19:27193255
panetta's unclear language [195 words]mythFeb 9, 2012 12:25193249
2Why Israel Has No Other Choice [243 words]P. SchwartzFeb 7, 2012 22:53193188
2Israel is a Sword [20 words]NeilFeb 23, 2012 16:49193188
1Obama sum of cynicism [385 words]PhilippeFeb 7, 2012 08:08193167
1you think like me [20 words]jackFeb 8, 2012 22:36193167
2An Administration Confused and Cynical at once [388 words]John W McGinleyFeb 6, 2012 10:29193139
2Jewish voting block vastly exaggerated [114 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:24193139
"Why the need to pander to them." [127 words]HarryFeb 7, 2012 10:04193139
1Harry, you miss my point [170 words]saraFeb 7, 2012 20:37193139
Obama Betting on Sanctions [14 words]Tom TrueFeb 28, 2012 12:05193139
Likely that Israel will attack, but unfortunate for the world. [106 words]Jon from EurolandFeb 6, 2012 09:11193138
4to Jon from Euroland [96 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:17193138
1Consequences [122 words]Jon from EurolandFeb 8, 2012 07:08193138
Written words offer wiggle room? How? [17 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
SimonFeb 6, 2012 07:51193136
Not accurate [59 words]
w/response from Daniel Pipes
JKFeb 6, 2012 07:44193135
Spies. [34 words]Dennis WojciakFeb 6, 2012 04:50193129
2Panetta was told to shoot off his mouth [123 words]Alaska PaulFeb 6, 2012 01:13193120
Do they mean business? [87 words]David W. LincolnFeb 5, 2012 17:57193105
Good Cop-Bad Cop [173 words]Barry BlackFeb 5, 2012 12:00193099
Predicting an Israeli Strike on Iran...What Buffoons [80 words]AnneFeb 5, 2012 06:55193087
1Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran [188 words]JudithFeb 4, 2012 22:41193081
10I find it a bit ludicous [129 words]saraFeb 4, 2012 18:45193065
1Really [48 words]HarryFeb 6, 2012 11:55193065
Well, Harry, that is my point [149 words]saraFeb 6, 2012 16:50193065
3Israel vs West on Attacking Iran [80 words]Anatoly TsaliovichFeb 4, 2012 18:34193064
2It doesn't make much sense [134 words]StanleyFeb 4, 2012 18:29193063
5An Israeli attack is doubtful [501 words]Ken BesigFeb 4, 2012 17:51193062
Unfortunately, Isreal has no choice. [71 words]DarrellFeb 6, 2012 00:20193062
The Timing For Israel is Critical - Yet the Israeli's Will Not Control It. [108 words]M. ToveyFeb 6, 2012 13:16193062
It is not aboutif, but when ISR will strike [395 words]Stonewall JacksonFeb 16, 2012 12:05193062
4Prisoner's Dilemma [1058 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 17, 2012 14:09193062
Looking for the Regal Reprieve for the Prisoner [469 words]M. ToveyFeb 21, 2012 11:33193062
2Addendum [431 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 23, 2012 10:12193062
2Addendum II [359 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 26, 2012 12:05193062
Addendum with Clarification Leading to a Second Addendum [228 words]M. ToveyFeb 27, 2012 19:22193062
Why is ISR not acting now? Variables, Turkey, Syria and Iran [814 words]Michel C. ZalaFeb 29, 2012 13:55193062
2An ISR viewpoint which opens up possibilities [508 words]Michel C. ZalaMar 2, 2012 15:11193062
3The Dilemma - Outstanding Article by Ari Shavit, Haaretz [670 words]StonewallJacksonMar 15, 2012 12:39193062
Wait for it...wait for it... [418 words]M. ToveyMay 24, 2012 18:43193062
Beating The Twelvers Of Iran [15 words]CliffordFeb 4, 2012 15:13193056
1Panetta Predicts [49 words]Nenette GrunbergFeb 4, 2012 14:07193054
3Huh? [104 words]Dan LenardFeb 4, 2012 13:47193051
2This Opinion [101 words]Jay1Feb 4, 2012 13:25193050

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