my best guess of what will happen

Submitted by Michael S (United States), Oct 10, 2017 at 05:49

Hi, Debanjan,

"If they opt for a small statelate, they will be permanently dependent upon their hostile neighbors and potentially fickle allies like the US and Israel."

I understand your reasoning, which reflects a Kurd-centered viewpoint.

From a US point of view, in supporting the Kurds, the US is in a position similar to that of Britain in WWII (supporting the isolated Poles) and the US in Laos during the Vietnam War (supporting the isolated Hmongs/ Meos). Without reserving for ourselves a reliable supply corridor, we have painted ourselves into a corner in Iraq-Syria, and are effectively being "held hostage" by the Syrians, Turks, Iraqis and Iranians.

Turkey has already occupied part of NW Syria and a base in Kurdistan; and it regularly raids and bombs positions in the KRG in pursuit of PKK partisans. Now they are also providing artillery cover for their surrogates in Idlib, NW Syria, and may move across the border there as well. Meanwhile, they have made a military pact with Iran and Iraq-Baghdad, against Kurdistan. After ISIS is defeated, I expect Turkey and Iran to jointly invade and occupy much of the region, becoming a joint threat to Israel in the Golan.

Where will the Kurds be in that scenario? They will probably be deserted by the US, occupied by Turkey and dependent on supplies smuggled through hostile territory. Israel will probably remain an ally; and when Turkey and Iran attack Israel, the Kurds should be able to attack their enemies in the rear to help Israel to victory.

The map will change then, with Israel bordering Kurdistan at the Euphrates. The demographic arguments you cited will then be moot.

That's my best guess of what will happen.

চিয়ার্স!

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