Forecasting the future needs to take energy into account

Submitted by G. Epstein (United States), Apr 15, 2008 at 16:39

I recall reading somewhere that oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia only around 1935. A few years ago I heard Caltech physicist David Goodstein report that half of Saudi Arabia's oil has already been used up. With India and China seriously competing for oil, it would seem safe to say that 60 years from now new energy sources will have had to displace the world's depleted oil reserves. The Arabs will then have no wealth from petroleum with which to finance terrorism and stimulate hatred.

A realistic forecast of the future then should take into account a probable collapse of not only Arab but Islamic civilization. A culture of ignorance can only take you so far. Disaffected groups may go in various directions: Adopt new religions, study modern science, experiment with due process and new forms of democracy, etc. Those on our university campuses and in mainstream media who defend the spewers of incitement to hatred in the name of free speech are merely prolonging the inevitable period of painful transition from disorder to harmony.

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