A fourth path?

Submitted by Farid H. (Germany), May 5, 2008 at 23:37

IMHO it is very likely that Europe will be hit by a new internal war because of the looming energy crisis, long before the issue of "Eurabia" will become acute on its own. Long periods of peace are NOT a European tradition, after all, despite 60 to 70 years of cold war / post-cold war.

Let's not underestimate the huge dependency of european industry, agriculture, and way of life in general, upon energy... huge, wasteful amounts of energy: should the situation on the oil market worsen (as it inevitably will), Europe and most other countries will be plunged into a deep struggle for survival and adaptation which will overshadow this particular problem. This could very easily lead to a new internal war between rivaling european peoples because of struggle for food (cf. the current bio-diesel and ethanol-based fuels crisis as precursor to much worse things to come) and other basic necessities.

BUT, even though it may seem to eclipse it for a while, an internal european war could have a huge effect on the "Eurabia" issue as a whole: in fact, it may worsen it, and push more Europeans towards the Second Path: in troubled times of turmoil, minorities inevitably get blamed for everything (it happened many times, and will happen again, such is human nature). It may also push more Europeans towards the First Path, seeking their own muslim population as allies against their enemies.

But, more likely, it may push more non-integrating muslims to leave war-battered Europe (I'd say "good riddance"), and others who were undecided whether to integrate or not, to join and fully embrace the european spirit because of shared hardships (nothing brings people more together than this). This split between emigration of the non-integrating, and integration of the undecided, I'd call the Fourth Path. In the end effect, it would be the best which would happen to Europe -- but the price for it, a war, is heavy, too heavy to even seriously consider. So, which path will it be?

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